Four years after its establishment under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) is reporting major strides: dramatic increases in rig deployment, renewed investor confidence, a sharp drop in crude oil losses, and measurable gains in output. These gains collectively signal a turning point for Nigeria’s upstream oil and gas sector.
In a statement by Head of Media and Strategic Communication, Eniola Akinkuotu, the NUPRC noted that active rig count rose from eight rigs in 2021 to 69 as of October 2025 — a roughly 762 percent increase. Of those, about 40 rigs are actively drilling, while the rest are on standby or in transit.
This surge in rig activity is one hallmark of the broader reforms instituted since 2021 under the PIA. The commission attributes the gains to policy stability, enhanced regulation, and preventive measures against oil theft.
Below, we examine Nigeria’s crude oil and condensate output trends over the past few years, to see how rig count growth is translating into production.
Crude and Condensate Output: From Recovery to Growth
Baselines and Trends
- 2021: In 2021, Nigeria’s crude oil production was about 1.0 million barrels per day (bpd). This reflected the low point from which much of the current recovery stems.
- 2024: The full year 2024 saw production of about 566.8 million barrels of crude and condensate combined. This works out to a daily average of roughly 1.55 million to 1.60 million bpd, varying by month. Toward the end of 2024, daily averages reached around 1.67–1.69 million bpd.
- Mid-to-Late 2025: By mid-2025 and into the third quarter, production has risen further. In July 2025, average output topped 1.78 million bpd (including crude and condensates). In August 2025, output averaged 1.63 million bpd, up from about 1.58 million bpd in the same month in 2024.
Crude-Only Figures and Quotas
- In August 2025, of the total roughly 1.63 million bpd, crude oil proper accounted for about 1.43 million bpd, while the rest was condensate.
- Comparisons to OPEC quotas show that Nigeria has been meeting or nearing its assigned production targets in recent periods. For instance, in August 2025, Nigeria met about 96% of its OPEC quota, based on crude and condensate volumes.
What the Trends Mean — Linking Rig Count, Investments, and Output
- The increase in rig count (from 8 rigs to 69) has clearly gone hand in hand with steadily rising output. The acquisition and mobilization of rigs is allowing more wells to be drilled, more production to come online, and more terminal throughput.
- Investment inflows under the PIA regime appear to be translating into higher capacity, operational improvements, and better security—particularly in curbing crude theft, which has long undermined Nigeria’s ability to convert upstream activity into actual deliverable production.
- The steady increase from about 1.0 million bpd in 2021 to around 1.7-1.8 million bpd in mid-2025 shows that reforms are yielding output gains, though there is still a gap between current production and broader national targets.
Targets and Future Outlook
- The NUPRC has set a target of 2.1 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil output by 2025.
- In another forecast, the agency projected first-half 2025 production (crude and condensate) to average about 2,066,940 bpd, with refinery crude requirement estimated at about 770,500 bpd to run functional refineries.
- Nigeria’s technical production capacity (crude and condensate) is estimated by some sources to be as high as 2.25 million bpd, though actual output is constrained by infrastructure, security, and some remaining regulatory and logistical bottlenecks.
Challenges and Caveats
While the upward trajectory is clear, there are still headwinds:
- Security and Oil Theft: Though significantly reduced—recent data shows crude losses down to about 9,600 bpd in mid 2025, compared with over 100,000 bpd in worse years — oil theft and vandalism remain risks that can disrupt production and investor confidence.
- Infrastructure and Evacuation: Producing more oil is one thing; getting it to refineries or export terminals reliably is another. Pipeline integrity, terminal capacities, and condensate handling are all part of the equation.
- Regulatory and Fiscal Pressure: Meeting production targets will also require continued regulatory clarity, fiscal incentives, and risk mitigation for upstream operators, especially for deepwater, marginal fields, and frontier areas.
- Global Oil Price Volatility and Demand: While domestic reforms help, Nigeria’s fortunes are still tied to global oil markets. Fluctuations in price or demand can affect investment incentives and profitability.
Conclusion: Gains and the Road Ahead
Combined with the rig count explosion and massive investment inflows, the crude and condensate output figures tell a story of substantial recovery for Nigeria’s upstream sector. From roughly 1 million bpd in 2021 to recurring 1.7-1.8 million bpd in 2025, the upward momentum is undeniable.
The PIA, along with enhanced regulatory oversight via the NUPRC, greater domestic and foreign investments, and better control of oil losses, have brought Nigeria closer than it has been in years to achieving its production aspirations. Hitting the target of 2.1 million bpd or higher will require that the current gains are sustained and that the remaining obstacles are addressed swiftly.
The commission’s four-year review shows how deliberate policy choices and effective regulation can turn around a struggling sector. For Nigeria, the next challenge is ensuring that these headline gains translate into lasting economic transformation.
